- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Screenplay nominations are key so a Best Picture win can happen! So, there's no way to exclude some of the year's most Oscar buzzy movies. Green Book benefits from being a crowd-pleaser with a heart in the right place and a topic about racial issues and it is likely to have an Oscar nomination in this category in the bag! Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite might not be written by the sadistic director, but it seems Davis & McNamara were able to write all the directors perversions and eye for the grothesque without sacrificing the characters' arcs - yes, another lock for Best Original Screenplay. Roma, considered Alfonso Cuarón's intimate masterpiece (after his extravaganza sized masterpiece production Gravity) is also considered one of the very best of the year and while the Netflix signature might hurt its award chances, I don't believe it will hurt the movie in a category that recognizes real auteurs like Cuarón. Finally, two spots left: and I'm predicting the AMPAS to use them to honour some of the most unique movies of the year. Right now, I'm betting on Eight Grade (a lovely and moving portray of the most awkward teenage years) and A Quiet Place (an original movie and a huge box-office hit and it seems Paramount is planning a huge campaign for the movie)... but Isle of Dogs can rise easily in this category considering its Oscar buzz in other categories, but it will need Fox Searchlight to campaign for the movie so AMPAS members remember how great it is. First Reformed can happen if the screenplay gets enough award recognition from the critics associations - it's a love or hate movie, but having Ethan Hawke in the run for Best Actor surely gives visibility. Vice is yet to be seen. Sorry to Bother You seems to be a delicious satire but it didn't get that much Oscar heat. What They Had is beautifully written, but it can be more of an actors movie than screenplay gold.
1. Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayed Currie and Peter Farerely
2. The Favourite, Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara3. Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
4. Eight Grade, Bo Burnham
5. A Quiet Place, Bryan Woods, Scott Beck and John Krasinski
6. Isle of Dogs, Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Jason Schwartzman and Kunichi Nomura
7. First Reformed, Paul Schrader
8. Vice, Adam McKay
9. Sorry to Bother You, Boots Riley
10. What They Had, Elizabeth Chomko
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
This year, it seems there are a lot of cinematic adaptations of tales of racial discrimination / racial injustice / xenophobia: BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Hate U Give and you can even consider Black Panther at some point (not in the negative way, but to honour some kind of a black supremancy). And, in my opinion, all these movies have a nice shot at a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination: specially BlacKkKlansman and If Beale Street Could Talk, even if they miss a Best Picture nomination (which I'm not counting). Then, I'm precdicting, A Star Is Born: Cooper's directing debut is a critical darling, an internet sensation and a huge box-office hit and given the crazy Oscar buzz around the movie I believe it will get a screenplay nomination "à la La La Land" - a not that great screenplay which gets a major award recognition thanks to the movie's Oscar love. Can You Ever Forgive Me? is considered a major award player by many, but I think it will only get nominations in Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay fields - it shows an amazing character arc and judging by the trailer it has a few great lines and Oscar voters love this kind of screenplays. Finally, The Hate U Give - an unexpected box-office hit which has been collecting huge raves - I'm predicting Amandla Stenberg's star vehicle finishes November as a major Oscar player given its topic, its performances and how great the source material is.
Then, I would not exclude First Man - internet is not in love for the movie, but it is a damn great one (AMPAS sometimes honours a movie all over the board just because of the visual explendor, but First Man has a beautiful tone of grief and sadness). The Death of Stalin is one of the best comedies I've seen in recent years and its screenplay is top-notch... but it has been a while since it was released and it might just get overlooked. Black Panther can happen if Disney builds a massive awards campaign - some Oscar folks already say it is a lock in Best Picture, but I warn you AMPAS people are mostly conservative old men. The Mule is yet to be seen, but Eastwood sometimes reaches brilliance when he's directing. Finally, Love, Simon... an underrated movie no one is really taking seriously - a movie that succeeds because of a brilliant sensitive screenplay.
1. BlacKkKlansman, Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmot
2. If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
3. A Star Is Born, Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth and Will Fetters
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holocefner & Jeff Whitty
5. The Hate U Give, Audrey Wells
6. First Man, Josh Singer & Nicole Perlman
7. The Death of Stalin, Armando Iannucci, David Schneider and Ian Martin
8. Black Panther, Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole
9. The Mule, Sam Dolnick
10. Love, Simon, Elizabeth Berger & Isaac Aptaker
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